The Russian agricultural sector has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past decade. Once a net importer of food, it has emerged as a global agricultural powerhouse, a key driver of the national economy, and a pillar of national sovereignty. Today, the industry stands at a crossroads, celebrating record harvests while grappling with falling profits, rising costs, and the urgent need for technological modernization.
A Year of Recovery and Record Harvests
After a challenging 2024 marked by difficult weather conditions, the Russian agricultural sector rebounded strongly in 2025. According to Rosstat, overall agricultural production increased by 4.9%, a significant recovery from the 3.3% decline recorded the previous year. The total value of agricultural production in 2025 reached 10.63 trillion rubles.
The Crop Sector Leads the Way
The primary driver of this growth was crop production, which surged by 9.2%. Favorable weather conditions, combined with the adoption of more modern agricultural technologies, allowed farmers to achieve impressive results.
- Record Grain Harvest: Russian farmers harvested 141.2 million tons of grain and legumes in 2025, a 12.1% increase year-on-year, according to Rosstat. The Ministry of Agriculture reported an even higher figure of 144.6 million tons, marking the third-best result in the country’s history. Wheat production reached 91.1 million tons, representing a 10.3% increase.
- Pulses Breakthrough: Russia became the world’s largest producer of pulses among exporting countries, with the harvest exceeding 8 million tons. The country’s share of global production rose from 6% to 10%.
- Oilseed Expansion: Soybean production grew by 28% to 9 million tons, while rapeseed harvests increased by 18.4% to 5.5 million tons, fully meeting the needs of the domestic livestock sector. Record crops of sunflower seeds were also reported.
- Other Crops: Sugar beet production increased by 8.5%, potato harvests grew by 9.3%, and fruit production also saw gains.
Livestock Sector Shows Slower Growth
The livestock sector experienced significantly more modest growth, increasing by just 0.1% in 2025. While production of poultry meat rose by 0.7%, pork increased by 2.3%, and milk production grew by 4%, beef production fell by approximately 5%. This slowdown is attributed to the near-saturation of the domestic market for meat and dairy products, alongside rising production costs for feed, energy, and credit servicing.
The Profitability Paradox
Despite record harvests, the financial health of the sector, particularly crop farming, is under severe pressure. Pre-tax profit in the crop sector fell by 43.7% in 2025, dropping to 161.9 billion rubles from 287.7 billion rubles in 2024. This marks the third consecutive year of declining profits and represents the sharpest drop since 2017.
Analysts point to a combination of factors driving this trend:
- Export Duties: Government-imposed duties on grain and oilseed exports have reduced farmer revenues.
- Falling Global Prices: International agricultural commodity prices have declined from their post-2022 peaks.
- Rising Costs: Input costs for machinery, seeds, crop protection, and labor have all increased significantly.
The Push for Technological Independence
In response to these challenges, the Russian government has placed technological modernization at the heart of its agricultural strategy. The national project “Technological Support for Food Security” aims to reduce the sector’s dependence on imported technology. In 2025, the first year of the project’s implementation, the level of technological self-sufficiency in agriculture reached 55.8%, with a target of 66.7% by 2030.
Key initiatives include:
- Domestic Seed Development: Self-sufficiency in domestic seed selection reached 69.3% in 2025, with a target of 75% by 2030. The most significant progress has been made in crops like sunflower, rapeseed, soybeans, corn, and sugar beet, where reliance on foreign selection was previously high. A new Timiryazev Genomic Centre was established to accelerate breeding, aiming to reduce the time needed to develop new varieties to just two to three years.
- Livestock Genetics: State-supported molecular genetic research is being conducted to improve the breeding value of cattle. In 2025, studies were performed on 300,000 head of cattle across 26 regions. The goal is to reach at least 72% self-sufficiency in pedigree beef and dairy products by 2030.
Export Powerhouse Status
Russia’s agricultural success is also reflected in its growing export performance. The country has transformed from a major food importer into a confident exporter, with agricultural exports expected to reach $40 billion in 2025.
- Sunflower Oil Triumph: Russia surpassed Ukraine to become the world’s number one exporter of sunflower oil in the 2024/25 season, shipping 5.2 million tons.
- Meat Exports Grow: Meat and related product exports are projected to reach a record 1 million tons by the end of 2025.
- Grain Dominance: Russia is expected to export 52-55 million tons of grain in the 2025/26 agricultural year, maintaining its position as the world’s top wheat exporter. A government-imposed export quota of 20 million tons, in force from mid-February to end-June 2026, may constrain volumes but reflects the government’s desire to manage domestic supply and prices.
Challenges on the Horizon
Despite its successes, the Russian agricultural sector faces significant headwinds. High interest rates and a high cost of capital make many investment projects less attractive. Meanwhile, concerns about food security persist, particularly regarding access to food for vulnerable populations due to high inflation and financial constraints. Inflation in Russia was estimated at 6% in 2026, driven partly by war-related expenditures, placing further pressure on consumer purchasing power.
The Russian agriculture industry has proven its resilience, delivering record harvests and expanding its global footprint. However, its future success will depend on navigating a complex landscape of falling profits, rising costs, and the successful implementation of a costly technological modernization program. The industry is sowing the seeds for a more independent future, but the harvest is far from guaranteed.
