Russia’s DIY (Do-It-Yourself) industry—the market for home improvement, repair, and construction goods—is navigating one of its most challenging periods in recent memory. After years of steady growth, the sector is undergoing a painful contraction, driven by a perfect storm of economic pressures, shifting consumer behavior, and a structural rebalancing between online and offline channels. While the long-term outlook for the market remains positive, 2026 is a year of consolidation and adaptation.
Market Size and Performance: A Tale of Two Halves
The Russian DIY market showed divergent performance across 2025 and early 2026. According to industry estimates, the total market for home and construction goods reached 10.8 trillion rubles in 2025, marking a modest 2% increase over the previous year. The market is divided between the retail (B2C) segment and the professional (B2B) segment.
However, the picture darkened significantly in early 2026. In the first quarter, the market contracted significantly year-on-year—a more severe decline than in the previous quarter. The main driver of this slump was the B2B channel, which saw a sharp decline, while the B2C segment showed relative resilience with a more moderate drop. Industry analysts expect the decline to moderate in Q2, before a potential recovery later in the year.
Several factors are driving this contraction: a sharp increase in the tax burden beginning January 2026 (including a VAT hike), high borrowing costs, a cooling housing market, and reduced investment in maintaining and upgrading fixed assets. A modest decline in overall market capacity is forecast for the full year 2026.
Consumer Behavior Shifts: From Grand Renovations to Phased Repairs
The most significant change in the DIY market is a fundamental shift in consumer behavior. Faced with economic uncertainty and high inflation, Russians are moving away from large-scale renovations in favor of smaller, phased projects.
- “Repair Instead of Move”: With housing becoming less accessible, the “repair instead of moving” trend is accelerating. Consumers are increasingly opting for staged renovations, spreading costs over time. This supports the segment of small and medium purchases and creates a more flexible consumption model.
- Rising Cost of Labor vs. Materials: The cost of repair work has risen sharply, now accounting for the majority of the renovation budget in Q1 2026, compared to half in 2022. This is driven by a shortage of qualified construction workers—a problem that is likely to persist. As a result, consumers are focusing on essential, localized repairs rather than full-scale renovations.
- Online Penetration is Rising: The online segment of DIY goods is booming. In 2025, online sales reached significant levels. The share of online buyers reached nearly half in 2025, up from previous years. E-commerce penetration in the DIY sector is still relatively low, indicating significant room for growth. Notably, the “arrangement” segment has seen online sales grow more than fourfold in a single year.
The Offline Retail Collapse and the Rise of Marketplaces
The structural shift to online is dramatically reshaping the retail landscape. The number of specialized DIY stores has fallen significantly over the past four years. This decline is driven by a combination of reduced consumer activity, falling construction and repair volumes, and the rapid growth of marketplaces (Wildberries, Ozon, Yandex Market) and their pick-up points.
The decline has not been uniform across all categories. The hardest-hit segments are those with products that are easier to sell online:
- Electrical goods
- Fasteners
- Tiles
- Plumbing
However, segments tied to suburban and rural living have bucked the trend. Stores selling flooring have grown, and roofing and insulation materials have also expanded. This is linked to increased interest in country homes and the development of individual housing construction (IHC). Major players in the sector have also increased their presence on marketplaces, with the largest specialized DIY chains now selling on platforms like Wildberries and Ozon.
Key Segments and Product Categories
The DIY market is composed of three broad categories:
- Interior Repair: This remains the largest segment, though its share is declining.
- Home Arrangement and Comfort: This is the fastest-growing segment, as consumers prioritize making their existing spaces more comfortable.
- Construction and Site Organization: This segment contracted, reflecting the cooling housing market.
In terms of specific product categories, the online marketplace data shows that power tools and plumbing are the most popular DIY categories sold on multi-category platforms. Markets such as windows and floor coverings are less represented online.
Outlook: Recovery in Sight, but Challenges Remain
The outlook for the DIY market is for a gradual recovery. While the first half of 2026 has been challenging, experts expect a shift in the second half of the year.
- Recovery Drivers: The expected loosening of monetary policy and a reduction in interest rates could stimulate business and consumer spending on construction and repair. A potential recovery in mortgage lending and consumer credit could also provide a boost, along with the realization of pent-up B2C demand. However, the recovery in physical sales volumes is not expected before 2027.
- Persistent Challenges: The market will continue to face challenges from high logistics costs (with fuel inflation potentially driving up delivery costs), further price increases on materials (driven by raw material and energy costs, as well as import components), and the ongoing shortage of qualified construction workers.
- Strategic Adaptation: Major players are adapting through digitalization, focusing on customer experience and service, and developing proprietary brands (СТМ). The growth of e-commerce will continue to be a dominant trend. As the market consolidates, the role of professional expertise and service will remain key advantages for traditional players.
In conclusion, the Russian DIY industry in 2026 is a market in transition. The era of rapid growth has given way to a period of consolidation, driven by both economic headwinds and a fundamental shift in how consumers research and purchase home improvement products. The winners in this new landscape will be those who can successfully navigate the shift to online, adapt to changing consumer spending patterns, and manage costs effectively in a high-inflation environment.
